美国能源署发布最新国际能源展望2017

美国能源署9月14日发布了国际能源展望2017。

国际能源展望2017对全球能源市场提供了长期的评估,包括到2050年的模型结果,英文报告可以从相关网站下载。国际能源展望2017能源消费预测分别根据经济合作与发展组织(OECD)成员和非成员(非OECD),分为16个地区。

世界能源消费增长

国际能源展望2017与2017年度能源展望预测一致,认为2015和2040之间,世界能源消费增长28%,超过一半的增长归因于亚洲非经合组织国家(包括中国和印度),强劲的经济增长带动了对能源的需求越来越大。

表1.按地区世界能源消耗总量,2015-50
quadrillion Btu
地区20152020202520302035204020452050平均年变化百分比(2015-50)
经合组织成员
   OECD 美洲
      Liquids46.347.246.445.145.045.847.148.70.1
 Natural gas35.235.537.238.940.542.544.546.70.8
      Coal16.816.514.712.612.011.511.210.8-1.2
      Nuclear9.59.19.09.18.78.27.66.9-0.9
      Other14.016.118.119.020.221.422.723.81.5
      Total121.9124.4125.5124.8126.3129.5133.0136.90.3
   OECD 欧洲
      Liquids28.628.427.226.826.626.426.025.8-0.3
  Natural gas17.317.818.018.620.922.825.127.81.4
      Coal11.812.311.911.711.711.611.712.10.1
      Nuclear8.57.46.76.86.36.05.04.0-2.1
      Other13.614.517.219.219.420.420.921.71.3
      Total79.880.581.083.084.887.288.891.40.4
   OECD 亚洲
      Liquids15.815.115.115.215.315.415.615.80.0
      Natural gas8.68.79.09.610.210.911.612.41.0
      Coal9.19.09.19.19.19.29.39.50.1
      Nuclear1.53.03.73.73.94.04.14.33.0
      Other3.23.34.45.05.35.66.06.42.0
      Total38.339.141.342.543.745.146.548.30.7
   经合组织合计
      Liquids90.890.888.687.086.887.788.690.40.0
      Natural gas61.162.164.267.171.576.281.286.81.0
      Coal37.737.935.833.432.832.332.232.4-0.4
      Nuclear19.519.419.519.618.818.216.715.2-0.7
      Other30.733.839.743.244.947.449.651.91.5
      Total239.9244.0247.8250.3254.8261.8268.3276.60.4
非经合组织成员
   Non-OECD欧洲和欧亚大陆
      Liquids11.411.411.010.810.910.810.610.5-0.3
      Natural gas21.621.121.121.321.922.122.122.20.1
      Coal8.27.87.67.57.77.67.57.3-0.3
      Nuclear3.23.94.44.34.24.14.14.20.8
      Other3.33.33.33.73.84.04.24.50.9
      Total47.747.547.447.648.448.748.648.70.1
   Non-OECD 亚洲
      Liquids49.155.862.167.572.978.683.787.41.7
 Natural gas18.520.826.531.237.844.952.760.53.4
      Coal106.9110.1111.8111.0111.7113.0114.7116.20.2
      Nuclear2.94.35.98.210.813.816.118.05.4
      Other22.830.835.442.546.952.057.362.42.9
      Total200.1221.8241.8260.3280.0302.3324.5344.61.6
 中东
      Liquids17.219.118.718.219.220.421.822.80.8
 Natural gas16.416.418.921.723.825.928.530.81.8
      Coal0.10.10.10.20.30.30.40.55.3
      Nuclear0.00.50.60.81.01.21.21.310.6
      Other0.20.20.70.91.21.51.61.86.1
      Total33.936.439.041.845.449.353.557.21.5
 非洲
      Liquids8.49.08.99.510.511.713.215.01.7
 Natural gas5.25.66.36.46.77.37.98.61.4
      Coal4.34.95.45.55.65.96.26.61.2
      Nuclear0.10.10.10.20.20.20.30.43.2
      Other4.64.64.76.28.09.09.710.42.3
      Total22.724.225.527.931.034.237.541.11.7
   Non-OECD美洲
      Liquids13.713.814.615.215.816.717.718.70.9
  Natural gas6.05.86.36.67.07.78.59.31.2
      Coal1.11.11.11.21.21.31.51.61.1
      Nuclear0.20.30.40.40.40.40.30.30.9
      Other10.110.011.012.013.214.014.915.71.3
      Total31.131.033.435.437.640.242.845.61.1
   非经合组织合计
      Liquids99.7109.2115.3121.1129.2138.3147.1154.51.3
 Natural gas67.869.779.287.297.1107.9119.6131.31.9
      Coal120.5124.1126.1125.5126.5128.2130.3132.20.3
      Nuclear6.59.111.413.916.619.722.024.23.8
      Other41.048.955.165.373.180.687.894.82.4
      Total335.5360.9387.1413.0442.4474.7506.9537.11.4
  全球合计
      Liquids190.6200.0203.9208.1216.0226.0235.8244.90.7
 Natural gas128.9131.7143.4154.3168.6184.0200.9218.21.5
      Coal158.2161.9161.9158.8159.3160.5162.5164.60.1
      Nuclear26.028.530.933.535.437.938.739.41.2
      Other71.782.794.8108.4117.9128.0137.3146.62.1
      Total575.4604.9634.9663.2697.3736.5775.2813.71.0
来源: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Energy Projection System Plus (2017), run IEO2017_d2017.08.23_153156 and
EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2017, DOE/EIA-0383(2017) (Washington, DC: January 2017);
AEO2017 National Energy Modeling System, run ref2017.d120816a, www.eia.gov/aeo.

预计天然气产量最大增幅主要发生在中东、美国和中国

•在美国和中国,2015和2040之间的天然气产量增长预计将主要来自页岩资源开发。

•俄罗斯2015和40年间天然气产量的增长受到该国北极和东部地区资源增长的支持。

•新开发的莫桑比克和坦桑尼亚的海上油田增产,以及埃及zohr油田支持从非洲出口液化天然气。

在天然气的供应中,页岩气和致密气发挥越来越重要的作用

trillion cubic feet

来源:美国能源署世界能源展望2017

编译:https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/ieo/

未经允许不得转载:地学情报 » 美国能源署发布最新国际能源展望2017

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